Oracle Accountability
The credence pool. Skin in the game, on-chain.
Every correct oracle prediction mints $CRED to the pool. Every incorrect prediction burns it. The pool size is the market's valuation of the oracle's demonstrated accuracy. It is publicly visible at all times.
$CRED Credence Pool — Live
0.000000
Awaiting first confirmed oracle receipt
87.6%
Oracle accuracy
121
Genesis runs
7
Active chains
PENDING
Oracle keypair
Supply mechanism
The only mechanism that creates $CRED is a correct oracle receipt. The only mechanism that destroys it is an incorrect one.
↑ Mint — oracle correct
mint = stake × confidence_mult × duration_mult
confidence_mult:
1.0× at 50% confidence
2.0× at 100% confidence
duration_mult:
1.0× (7-day window)
1.63× (30-day window)
1.93× (60-day window)
formula: 1 + log₁₀(days/7)
First oracle confirmation (Shirokuma): 500 stake × 1.8 confidence × 1.63 duration = 1,467 $CRED minted to pool.
↓ Burn — oracle incorrect
burn = stake × 0.5
Half the stake burns on each
incorrect resolution.
Asymmetry is intentional:
100% burn → oracle too risk-averse
50% burn → meaningful exposure
without existential risk per call
5 wrong calls at 50% each:
0.5⁵ = 3.1% of original pool remains
→ de facto suspension
Oracle suspends operations automatically when pool falls below max(100 $CRED, 10% of peak). The incentive to be accurate is structural, not reputational.
Initial supply: zero. No pre-mine. No team allocation. No governance token. The supply is the truth — any supply that wasn't earned by the oracle being right is a lie added to the supply.
Credence score
Every Agora participant builds a personal credence score. Accuracy and capital together determine leverage.
Example — established participant
0.87
43 resolved positions · 37 correct · 6 incorrect · 30-day half-life decay applied · 3.0× leverage multiplier
| Credence score | Leverage multiplier | Relative to neutral |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90+ | 4.5× | |
| 0.80–0.89 | 3.0× | |
| 0.70–0.79 | 2.0× | |
| 0.60–0.69 | 1.2× | |
| <0.60 or <10 positions | 1.0× |
Score decays with a 30-day half-life. A prediction from 30 days ago contributes half as much as one from today. Recent accuracy is heavily weighted. Historical accuracy still matters. Smart money is literally the most credible money.
Launch sequence
$CRED supply goes from zero to live in five steps.
01
Oracle Ed25519 keypair generatedsolana-keygen new · 30 minutes · unblocks everything
BLOCKING
02
$CRED credence pool deployed on Solanaanchor build + anchor deploy · 20 minutes after keypair
awaiting 01
03
Shirokuma attorney sign-offAll 5 Instrument Layers active · 34/34 params · due 2026-03-24
8 DAYS
04
Puro.earth certification fires → first $CRED mintscertified_tonnes_total ≥ 1,000 · oracle receipt confirmed · 1,467 $CRED initial supply
auto on confirmation
05
90 days confirmed public receipts → $CRED secondary marketSupply claim is provable · 11 Agora markets open · credence scores accumulate
~90 days post-04