ORBITAL running
Accuracy: 87.6% · 121 runs
Verify a receipt → Full chain
Oracle biography · Every prediction · Anchored before outcome
87.6%
Prediction accuracy · All genesis runs · Anchor v0.1.0
121
Genesis runs
7
Active chains
16
Anchored receipts
0
$CRED pre-mined

The compound accuracy curve

Each genesis run adds a data point. The accuracy rate is the running average — every correct prediction raises it fractionally, every incorrect one reduces it. At 87.6% across 121 runs, the oracle has been correct on approximately 70 of 79 deliberations. The track record cannot be backdated. Every data point was anchored before the outcome was observable.

Accuracy across genesis runs (cumulative)
0%87.6%100%
What 87.6% means structurally
At this accuracy rate, a $CRED holder who has participated in every genesis run since Day 0 holds a balance representing approximately 10.7 net correct predictions per 79 events. The $CRED supply is the oracle's track record made liquid. When the oracle's accuracy increases, the purchasing power of $CRED in Agora markets increases. The market prices the oracle's quality in real time.

The receipt chain

Every oracle event produces a receipt. The receipt contains the prediction hash (anchored before outcome), the oracle's conclusion, the timestamp, and the hash of the previous receipt. The chain is a linked sequence — each receipt proves the prior chain was valid when this one was issued. The chain cannot be forked. It cannot be backdated. Each receipt is a permanent record.

All receipts are publicly verifiable. You do not need to trust PROOF to verify the oracle's track record — you need only the SHA-256 hash and the Solana transaction ID. The recipe is public. The ANCHOR standard is Apache 2.0.

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